Wednesday, December 17, 2008


Has anyone been paying attention to the financial headlines the past few weeks?
Corporations missing their profit targets, still more declaring bankruptcy and many more announcing thousands upon thousands of layoffs! Add to this the strange story of Mr. Madoff (pronounced ‘made off’) who ‘made off’ with tens of $ Billions of investor’s money. As one person observed ‘There’s never just one cockroach… You know there is more of that sort of news coming.

Under the weight of this avalanche of horrible financial news, U.S. markets continue to rally…WTF!

China’s own major stock market, the HANG SENG continues to rise also, when in the face of China’s current economic crisis it should be falling like a fat man from a high dive. China is a communist country, its leaders can suppress information that they don’t particularly like, such as hundreds upon hundreds of factories shutting down leaving tens of thousands at a stroke unemployed with no safety net. Violence has ensued and there are rumors leaking out that more is brewing as the situation worsens. Conditions in China are deteriorating rapidly and their stock market is still rising…WTF?

A few have pointed to manipulation, I rather think the game is over and the big boyz who once moved markets are feeding on one another in a last ditch effort to obtain one more fix before their stash runs dry. So addicted to $ Billions that they shake with withdrawal tremors at the mere mention of no more money. At this they threaten and cajole congress and the senate for handouts of the highly addictive substance - money. Just hand it over, go quietly and no one will declare martial law. That’s the real story. We (those of us who are not filthy rich) are the victims of unauthorized rear entry by those who gamed the system and became obese on the wealth they accumulated. Some, who became fabulously wealthy, like Mr. Madoff by simple fraud. Small investors are probably not being targeted by big investors so much as just getting caught in the crossfire as they resort to eating one another.

Back to my point: The shear weight of horrible financial news is becoming too heavy to bear. Big players have been propping up the markets by cramming flimsy sticks under these boulders of bad news, hoping to buy just a little more time to play one more hand. There is nothing strong enough left to prop up the weight of bad news. It’s now far too heavy. The reality is, the economic damage is done, we have crossed the point of no return and we are now in a financial death spiral. When the spin doctors can no longer convince us the patient is just sleeping, world markets will come down with a deafening crack. How close are we? Closer than you think.

In the mean time, while we watch world markets spit in the face of reality and rocket upward we can only ask ourselves, WTF?


Anonymous Jim Wagoner said...

This economic mess started with the housing market and likely won’t recover until the housing market recovers. Why can’t the banks/lenders drop mortgage rates to the 3.5% area, keeping them in line with the historical margin (1%) above the 10 year treasury? Maybe use some of the $350 billion+ bailout money to help subsidize it, if needed. Maybe get some useful help from the government.

If homeowners could refinance their mortgages and save hundreds of dollars every month on their payments it would have a much greater affect on the economy then a one-time check for $500 (which really does nothing), and it wouldn’t cost us taxpayers anything. If people saw rates at 3.5% and knew they were only going to be there for a few months to a year, I believe we would see people stampeding to buy houses.

The other thing that could/should be done regarding refinancing is figuring out a way to allow just about everyone to do it. No more Loan Modifications. Just let everyone get their payments to something they can afford and hopefully create extra income for most. Spending would pick up, saving many businesses, creating additional income and ultimately additional tax revenue.

Why wouldn’t this work? What am I missing?

Friday, January 23, 2009  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think your ideas are good but for one fact: The economic damage has passed the point of no return.
There are still massive derivatives leverage left to unwind, and this will insure downward pressure on all areas of the economy, jobs, housing, banks, you name it.

Very little chance for recovery when it's raining knives...

Sunday, January 25, 2009  

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